 Here is an updated version of the blog post Artificial Intelligence and Diplomacy resources, including Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools, webpages, videos, studies, and articles.
I added a new section about courses on AI and diplomacy. There is also information about using Machine Learning for teaching and learning. Please share new ones in the comment section! You can also read my blog posts about the subject here:
AI tools and application/experiments/usage Diplo AI Writer @ DiploFoundation is a DiploFoundation artificial intelligence writer who publishes blog posts about the subject, including the DiploFoundation AI Diary. HumAInism by DiploFoundation has some AI tools related to diplomacy and arts. Can ChatGPT Explain Geopolitics? is an exercise to compare two essays and test if you can identify the one written by AI. It is published by Foreign Policy magazine. Interactive webpage about the cost of AI in different languages (Tokenization fairness). Webpages of research centers and institutions Artificial Intelligence and Diplomacy by DiploFoundation. Artificial Intelligence by Digwatch (Geneva Internet Platform) AI Now Institute. Center for AI and Digital Policy Center for the Advancement of Trustworthy AI Deloitte AI Institute for Government Global Index on Responsible AI Global Partnership for AI Institute for Ethics in AI at the University of Oxford MILA, Quebec Artificial Intelligence Institute OECD AI Observatory Partnership on AI The AI Index. Stanford University Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Tech Policy Press. UN-related sites Road Map for Digital Cooperation and its updated road map) Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology webpage Global Digital Compact (May 2023) High-Level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence and its Interim Report: Governing AI for Humanity (December 2023) Summit of the Future UNESCO´s Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence Videos Artificial Intelligence and Diplomacy Webinar. UNITAR and UOC. (2023, February 15). AI and Diplomacy: Challenges and opportunities. UNITAR (2023, May 10) Integrating Artificial Intelligence into an Embassy’s Public Diplomacy Workflows. Center on Public Diplomacy (2023, October 18) Technologies of Tomorrow: A Conversation with Dr. Eric Schmidt. Carnegie Endowment (2023, January 11). DiploFoundation´s webdebates Will AI take over diplomatic reporting? WebDebate #56. DiploFoundation (2023, February 7). What role can AI play in diplomatic negotiation? WebDebate #57. DiploFoundation (2023, March 7). How to Train Diplomats to Deal with AI and Data? WebDebate #58. DiploFoundation (2023, April 4). What Can We Learn About AI Ethics and Governance from Non-Western Thought? WebDebate #59. DiploFoundation (2023, May 2). AI for Peacemaking: new tools and opportunities for mediators. WebDebate #30. DiploFoundation (2019, June 19). AI on the international agenda - where do we go from here? WebDebate #26. DiploFoundation (2018, December 4). Studies and articles Adebahr, C. (2023, October 11). Why AI will Change the Core of Foreign Policymaking. Global Policy. Allen, G. (2022, October 11). Choking off China´s Access to the Future of AI. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Bjola, C. (2019, October 19). Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. Real Institute Elcano. Bjola, C. (2020). Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. EDA Working Paper. Emirates Diplomatic Academy. Bjola, C. & Manor, I. (2023, April 25). ChatGPT: The end of diplomacy as we know it. Global Policy. Bremmer, I. & Kupchan, C. (2022, January 3). Risk 2: Technopolar World. Top Risks 2022. p. 5-6. Euroasian Group. Cesareo, S. & White, J. (2023, June 23). The Global AI Index. Tortoise Media. Cocking, S. (2016, September 19). Using algorithms to achieve digital diplomacy. A conversation with Elad Ratson, Director of R&D at Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Irish Tech News. Corvalan, J. G. (2023). Propuesta de regulación y recomendaciones de inteligencia artificial en el mundo: sintesis de principales aspectos. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Cuéllar, M.-F. & Sheehan, M. (2023, June 19). AI Is Winning the AI Race. Foreign Policy. Deloitte AI Institute for Government & Google Cloud. (2022). Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Modernize American Statecraft. Davies, H., Mckernan, B., and Sabbagh, D. (2023, December 1). ´The Gospel´: how Israel uses AI to select bombing targets in Gaza. The Guardian. Department of State. (2023, October). Enterprise. Artificial Intelligence Strategy FY2024-FY2025: Empowering Diplomacy thought Responsible AI. Dickow, M. and Jacob, D. (2018). The Global Debate on the Future of Artificial Intelligence. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik [SWV] Comment No. 23, p. 7. Digwatch (n.d). GGE -Group of Governmental Experts- on lethal autonomous weapons systems. Digwatch. Digwatch. (2019, February 5). Artificial intelligence and diplomacy: A new tool for diplomacy? EVENT REPORT. Digwatch. Geneva Internet Platform. Digwatch. (2023, July 17). UN Security Council convenes to discuss AI risks. Digwatch. Geneva Internet Platform. Digwatch (2023, December 25). UN General Assembly adopted resolution on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems or LAWS. Digwatch. DiploFoundation. (2019). Mapping the challenges and opportunities of artificial intelligence for the conduct of diplomacy. DiploFoundation and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. DiploFoundation. (2023, May 3). First full AI-reporting from the UN meeting. DiploFoundation blog. DiploFoundation. (2023, May 3). AI-based report of United Nations Security Council debate marks start of a new era in multilateral diplomacy. DiploFoundation blog. Elia Valori, G. (2023, July 8). Artificial Intelligence and the New World Order (1). Modern Diplomacy. Elia Valori, G. (2023, July 30). AI and the new world order: Economy and war (2). Modern Diplomacy. European Migration Network. (2022). The use of digitalisation and artificial intelligence in migration management: Joint EMN-OECD Inform. Farrow, R. (2023, August 21). Elon Musk´s Shadow Rule. How the U.S. government came to rely on the tech billionaire—and is now struggling to rein him in. The New Yorker. Feás, E. (2023, February 2). La guerra tecnológica EEUU-China y sus efectos sobre Europa. Real Instituto Elcano. Galeotti, M. (2023, January 7). The age of AI diplomacy. The Spectator. Giles, K. (2023, September 12). Tech giants hold huge sway in matters of war, life and death. That should concern us all. The Guardian. Government AI Readiness Index 2022. Heaven, W. D. (2023, December 19). These six questions will dictate the future of generative AI. MIT Technology Review. Henshall, W. (2023, Oct 23). What the U.N.’s AI Advising Group Will Do. Time. IBM Global AI Adoption Index 2022. Jacobs. S (2023, September 7). Time 100 Most Influential People on AI. Time. Jafarova, L. (2023, August 1). Artificial Intelligence and Digital Diplomacy. E-International Relations. Keohan, C. & Kralev, N. (2022, August 7). Want to Be a Diplomat? You Must Make it Past and A.I.’ Gateway’. Diplomatic Diary blog. Washington International Diplomatic Academy. Kurbalija, J. (2017, May 9). The impact of big data on geopolitics, negotiations, and diplomacy. DiploFoundation Blog. (Updated August 7, 2022). Kurbalija, J. (2023, May 1). Why might AI cause more ´lost in translation´ worldwide? DiploFoundation Blog. Kurbajila, J. (2023, June 12). The case for bottom-up AI. Al Jazeera. Kurbalija, J. (2023, August 1). What can Socrates teach us about AI and prompting? DiploFoundation Blog. Kurbalija, J. (2023, November 8). How can we deal with AI risks? DiploFoundation Blog. Kurbalija, J. (2023, December 28). AI and Digital in 2023: From winter of excitement to autumn of clarity. DiploFoundation Blog Laferrière, H. & McPherson, A. (2019, April 24). Augmented Decision-Making @ IRCC. Presentation to the Symposium on Algorithmic Government. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Lazard Geopolitical Advisory. (2023, October). Geopolitics of Artificial Intelligence. Lederer, E. (2023, July 3). UN Council to hold first meeting on potential threats of artificial intelligence to global peace. AP News. Liu, S. & Patton, D. (2023, December 22). China bans export of rare earths processing tech over national security. Reuters. Manor, I. (2023, February 21). The AI Moves In: ChatGPT’s Impact on Digital Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, March 30). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, April 4). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy - Part 2. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, April 18). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy - Part 3. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, June 15). AI’s Impact on Public Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, June 27). The Many Races that will shape AI. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, July 4). Real Fakes and the Future of Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, August 15). Towards the Strategic Use of AI in Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy blog. Marcus, G. (2023, November 23). Critical national security questions should not be decided unilaterally by unelected tech leaders. Marcus at AI. Mahrenbach, E. (Ed.). (2023). Governing Artificial Intelligence. Global Policy Maslej, N., Fattorini, l., Brynjolfsson, E., Etchemendy, J., Ligett, K., Lyons, T., Manyika, J., Ngo, H., Niebles, J. C., Parli, V., Shoham, Y., Wald, R., Clark, J., & Perrault, R. (2023, April). The Artificial Intelligence Index 2023 Annual Report. Stanford University Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. Matania, E. & Sommer, U. (2023, November 20). Tech titans, cyber commons and the war in Ukraine: An incipient shift in international relations. International Relations, 0 (0). https://doi.org/10.1177/00471178231211500 McCaffrey, C. R., Jones, O., Krumbmüller, F., & Bell, D. (2022; December). 2023 Geostrategic Outlook. Ernest and Young Parthenon. McCaffrey, C. R., Jones, O., & Krumbmüller, F. (2023, December). 2024 Geostrategic Outlook. Ernest and Young Parthenon. Morini Bianzino, N., Delarue. M.-L., Maher, S., Koene, A., Kummer, K., & Hassan-Szlamka, F. (2023, September 27). The Artificial Intelligence (AI) global regulatory landscape. Ernest and Young Global. O´Neil, L (2023, August 12). The Truth in Tech: These Women Tried to Warn Us about AI. Rolling Stone. Ortega, A. (2020, Diciembre 9). El pulso mundial por el dominio de los semiconductors. Real Instituto Elcano Pavel, B., Ke, I., Spirtas, M., Ryseff, J., Sabbag, L., Smith, G., Scholl, K., & Lumpkin, D. (202) AI and Geopolitics: How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations? Rand Corporation. Peirano, M. (2023, October 17). The double life of artificial intelligence. On automata, symbolic models, neural networks and machine learning: a brief history of AI. CCCB Lab. Petrov, A., La Malfa, E., Torr, P. H.S., & Bibi, A. (2023, May 17). Language Model Tokenizers Introduce Unfairness Between Languages. ArXiv:2350.1542. Ponzio, R., Nudhara Yusuf, N., Mallinson, F. & Shahrukh, M. (2023). Future of International Cooperation Report 2023. The Stimson Center, Doha Forum, and Global Institute for Strategic Research. René, G., Sayegh, P., Petersen, C., Pletts, C., Richardson, D., Stockburger, P., & Tanenblatt, E. (2023, July). The Future of Global AI Governance. Verses. Sauer, P. (2023, Sept. 8). Elon Musk ´committed evil´ with Starlink order, says Ukrainian official. The Guardian. Schmidt, E. (2022). AI, Great Power Competition & National Security. Daedalus, 151(2), p.288-298. https://doi.org/10.1162/daed_a_01916. Scolari, C.A. (2023, February 7). Artificial Intelligence: Half Wanting, Half Fearing How will new AI-based tools change the way we think and perceive the world? CCCB Lab. Scott, B., Heumann, S., & Lorenz, P. (2018). Artificial Intelligence and Foreign Policy. Stiftung Neue Veranwortung. Shahbaz, A., Funk, A., Brody, J., Vesteinsson, K., Baker, G., Grothe, C., Barak, M., Masinsin, M., Modi, R., & Sutterlin, E. (eds.) (2023). Freedom on the Net 2023: The Repressive Power of Artificial Intelligence. Freedom House. Sheehan, M (2022, October 27). Biden’s Unprecedented Semiconductor Bet. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Stanford University. (n.d.). Global AI Vibrancy Tool. Who is leading the global AI race? Stanford University Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. Stanzel, V. & Voelsen, D. (2022). Diplomacy and Artificial Intelligence Reflections on Practical Assistance for Diplomatic Negotiations. SWP Research Paper. Strachan, G. & Manor, I. (2023, July 14). ‘I can be a bastard too’- ChatGPT’s Real Contribution to Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Tacheva, J. and Ramasubramanian, S. (2023). AI Empire: Unraveling the interlocking systems of oppression in generative AI’s global order. Big Data and Society, 10(2), p. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1177/20539517231219241 Tarar, Z. (2023, February 23). Analysis - Could AI change the business of diplomacy? The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Tarar, Z. (2023, February 27). Analysis - Which AI tools should diplomats use today? The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Tarar, Z. (2023, August 28). Analysis - Harnessing AI for diplomacy: Five tools to make your work easier. The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Teleanu, S (2023, August 21). A journey of discovery: Using simulation and AI to teach and learn about digital governance. DiploFoundation Blog. US Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy. (2023, June 14). The Use of Artificial Intelligence in Public Diplomacy: ACPD Official Meeting Minutes, June 14, 2023. Williams, A., Micali, M. & Gebru, T. (2022, October 23). The Exploited Labor Behind Artificial Intelligence. NOEMA. Williams, R. & Otto, L. (2022). Artificial Intelligence as a Tool of Public Diplomacy: Communication between the United States and Iran. The Thinker 90(1) p. 28-40. Voo, J., Hemani, I. & Cassidy, D. (2022, September). National Cyber Power Index 2022. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School. Courses Artificial Intelligence: Technology, Governance, and Policy Frameworks online course offered by DiploFoundation. Starts February 19, 2024. Artificial Intelligence for Beginners – A Curriculum offered by Microsoft. IA para todos (AI for everyone) offered by DeepLearning.AI at Coursera, thought by Andrew Ng. (some parts are offered in several languages). IBM: AI for Everyone: Master the Basics offered by edX. Machine learning and AI offered by Google (includes several courses). Information about using AI for teaching and learning Mollick, E. (2022, December 13). How to…use AI to teach some of the hardest skills. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, January 24). The practical guide to using AI to do stuff. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, March 17). Using AI to make teaching easier & more impactful. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, July 15). How to Use AI to Do Stuff: An Opinionated Guide. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. Video series on Practical AI for Teachers and Students. YouTube. UNESCO. (2023). Technology in Education: A Tool on Whose Terms? Global Education Monitoring Report. UNESCO DISCLAIMER: All views expressed on this blog are that of the author and do not represent the opinions of any other authority, agency, organization, employer or company.
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“It is clear that AI will remain a permanent feature of international debates and will continue to shape societies and international relations. It is impossible to ignore the challenges – and opportunities – AI is bringing to the diplomatic realm” (DiploFoundation, 2019, p. 6).  Artificial Intelligence (AI) impacts every aspect of humanity, including the relationship between countries and the current world order. In this blog post, I write about how machine learning (ML) is transforming the international system where diplomacy takes place. As seen in my previous posts, to better understand the impact of AI on diplomacy, DiploFoundation (2019) proposes to evaluate it from three different perspectives:
The most striking facts about how AI is influencing the diplomatic environment are two:
These two elements significantly affect the balance of power in military and economic terms (DiploFoundation, 2019, p. 6), which is transforming the current geopolitical landscape. Let´s start discussing the increasing international role of the private sector, especially the tech giants (Alibaba, Alphabet -Google-, Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Meta -Facebook-, Microsoft, and Tencent). “While AI will not reshape the global balance of power in [2024], it will become an increasingly important arena of geopolitical competition” (McCaffrey et al., 2023). Tech giants: Global powerhouses of cyberspace The power that technology companies have today in global politics is a tremendous difference from previous geopolitical changing technology. For example, governments developed nuclear weapons, even if there was some private company participation. In the case of AI, only a handful of enterprises have enough computing power, access to huge data sets, money, and technical know-how. No government entity can compete with them. According to some studies, most developments in AI have been done by private companies and not research institutes or universities (Pavel et al., 2023; Maslej et al., 2023). As we see in the discussion of the regulation of foundation models as part of the EU AI Act, these are the heart of all machine learning. Most AI applications today use some of the foundational models of OpenAI (ChatGPT and Bing.chat), Google (Bard now running on Gemini), Anthropic (Claude), and Inflection (Pi). There are some open-source foundational models, like Meta´s LLAMA 2 and Mistral´s Mixtral 8x7B, that, once they are released, anybody can use to create different applications. “AI is transforming almost every sector of national economies and is accelerating globalized competitions among digital platforms and services” (Schmidt, 2022, p. 288). As the Starlink saga in Ukraine has demonstrated, companies now have the power to influence the outcome of an international conflict (Sauer, 2023; Giles 2023; Marcus, 2023). “There is little precedent for a civilian’s becoming the arbiter of a war between nations in such a granular way, or for the degree of dependency that the U.S. now has on [Elon] Musk in a variety of fields, from the future of energy and transportation to the exploration of space” (Farrow, 2023). Bremmer and Kupchan (2022) point out that the globe is moving towards a technopolar world, in which “states are facing a new form of competition from technology companies. Indeed, the latter exercise a form of sovereignty over an entirely new dimension of geopolitics: digital space” (p. 5). The problem is that “big tech firms have neither the capacity nor the interest (not to mention the business model) to govern the places and tools they are creating” (Bremmer & Kupchan 2022, p. 6), thus creating a governance gap, that countries are trying to close with some regulations, such as the brand new EU AI Act, the U.S. Executive Order on AI, and China´s AI regulations. However, Marcus (2023) explains that we already live in a technopolar realm, highlighting three examples. The first is the debate on open-source AI systems, in which tech leaders are deciding on behalf of humanity with its inherent risks for all. Secondly, technology companies rather than the government determine collaboration on AI developments with other nations, which could have significant security consequences. Lastly, Elon Musk´s decision regarding the Starlink connection in Ukraine had a tangible impact on the conflict. The US–China AI competition Many authors have stated that the US and China are already fighting a Cold War, especially in the ML and semiconductors realms. However, there are still some instances of collaboration between the two AI titans. The bilateral AI race is critical as the two countries' actions already have a significant bearing on the rest of the world. Leadership in AI has become the frontier of US-China geostrategic competition” (Lazard Geopolitical Advisory, 2023, p. 7). In terms of hardware (including chips), it is clear that there is no cooperation, and each country has actually taken steps to reduce the opportunity for the other. The US first imposed export license requirements for certain companies and later expanded it to restrict exports of the machines that create the most sophisticated semiconductors used to power machine leaning systems (Sheehan, 2022). In October 2023, the US expanded those restrictions. On the other hand, China has been expanding the prohibition of exports of rare minerals and related technology needed to build semiconductors and other high-tech products such as batteries (Liu & Patton, 2023). Both countries are also working on the dual race of AI innovation and regulation domestically and internationally, which will have significant consequences for the rest of the world (McCaffrey et al., 2023). In addition, other countries have joined the AI race, including the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia (Cesareo & White, 2023). Even countries like the UAE are marching ahead as the only country in the world that has established a Ministry of State for Artificial Intelligence. It is clear that the US-China AI competition has geopolitical consequences for the world and in the corridors of international organizations discussing AI regulations and ministries of foreign affairs. But, as one article mentions, the clear winner is AI so far (Cuéllar & Sheehan, 2023), as both are supporting innovation over regulation for fear of losing the AI race. Companies are also big winners on both sides as they are let loose to develop further machine learning systems and applications with little oversight and restrictions. The AI competition is closely related to the use of machine learning algorithms in conflicts. The evolution of lethal autonomous weapons systems is particularly worrisome, as discussed in the next section. Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) An essential development regarding AI is Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), which can change how countries wage wars. For more information on international efforts, check out this Digwatch page GGE -Group of Governmental Experts- on lethal autonomous weapons systems. At the core of the discussion is what happens when these systems turn against their creators or any human. It is very different to let an ML application recommend a song or a product to help you develop a strategy using big data analysis, and another totally different is to allow a computer system to kill a person by launching missiles from a UAV without human intervention. In recent days, there have been reports of Israel´s use of AI in Gaza (Davies, Mckernan, & Sabbagh, 2023). So, the use of machine learning in war is leaving the realm of fiction into reality, with all its consequences. As more countries rely upon such systems, war is changing substantially. A few days ago, on December 22, the UN General Assembly approved a resolution regarding LAWS, requesting the Secretary-General to prepare a report on this issue based on consultation with a wide array of stakeholders (Digwatch, 2023). It is a vital milestone as there is an urgent need to make sure the LAWS race to the bottom does not take the same pace as we are seeing it on the launching of Large Language Models. Preliminary conclusions The AI era is upon us, quickly transforming the international system and diplomacy. The exponential rate of ML developments is staggering and will be challenging to regulate in a highly contentious international environment. “The dual race to innovate and regulate [AI] will accelerate towards distinct geopolitical blocks” (McCaffrey et al., 2023, p. 7), centering around the US and China. However, the real powerholders of the digital realm are the tech giants, the only ones who can afford to develop the hugely costly ML foundational models. Artificial Intelligence “competition will continue to play out across the four bottlenecks [computing power, talent, data, and physical infrastructure] in the AI supply chain (Lazard Geopolitical Advisory, 2023, p. 19). This is in addition to achieving “self-reliance in critical technologies” (McCaffrey et al., 2022, p. 12). Regarding regulation, “Expect big headlines about how world capitals are bringing big tech to heel. But these are regulatory rear-guard actions, none of which will challenge big tech’s massive profits and influence anytime soon. Nor will they limit the biggest platforms’ ability to invest those profits in the digital sphere where they, not governments, remain the primary architects, actors, and enforcers” (Bremmer & Kupchan 2022, p. 6). Sadly, most countries worldwide will be lagging, with a few exceptions, subjugated by the AI Empire (Tacheva & Ramasubramanian, 2023). Besides implementing AI National Strategies and a Digital Foreign Policy, Global South governments could deploy technology diplomacy schemes to keep up with changes and establish relationships with tech giants. The development of AI has brought a new set of international actors that will dramatically change diplomacy. “As AI continues to advance, geopolitics may never be the same. Humans organized in nation-states will have to work with another set of actors—AI-enabled machines—of equivalent or greater intelligence and, potentially, highly disruptive capabilities. In the age of geotechnopolitics, human identity and human perceptions of our roles in the world will be distinctly different; monumental scientific discoveries will emerge in ways that humans may not be able to comprehend. Consequently, the AI development path that ultimately unfolds will matter enormously for the shape and contours of the future world (Pavel, et al., 2023). “Although technology has often influenced geopolitics, the prospect of AI means that the technology itself could become a geopolitical actor. AI could have motives and objectives that differ considerably from those of governments and private companies. Humans' inability to comprehend how AI "thinks" and our limited understanding of the second- and third-order effects of our commands or requests of AI are also very troubling. Humans have enough trouble interacting with one another. It remains to be seen how we will manage our relationships with one or more AIs” (Pavel et al., 2023). The big question regarding AI is whether it will benefit the majority of humanity or further concentrate power and enhance inequality. Do not forget to read some other posts about the subject:
Besides, I have curated a list of resources on AI and Diplomacy, which is a work in progress: References Allen, G. (2022, October 11). Choking off China´s Access to the Future of AI. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Bremmer, I. & Kupchan, C. (2022, January 3). Risk 2: Technopolar World. Top Risks 2022. p. 5-6. Euroasian Group. Cesareo, S. & White, J. (2023, June 23). The Global AI Index. Tortoise Media. Cuéllar, M.-F. & Sheehan, M. (2023, June 19). AI Is Winning the AI Race. Foreign Policy. Davies, H., Mckernan, B., and Sabbagh, D. (2023, December 1). ´The Gospel´: how Israel uses AI to select bombing targets in Gaza. The Guardian. Digwatch (n.d). GGE -Group of Governmental Experts- on lethal autonomous weapons systems. Digwatch. Digwatch (2023, December 25). UN General Assembly adopted resolution on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems or LAWS. Digwatch. DiploFoundation. (2019). Mapping the challenges and opportunities of artificial intelligence for the conduct of diplomacy. DiploFoundation and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. Farrow, R. (2023, August 21). Elon Musk´s Shadow Rule. How the U.S. government came to rely on the tech billionaire—and is now struggling to rein him in. The New Yorker. Giles, K. (2023, September 12). Tech giants hold huge sway in matters of war, life and death. That should concern us all. The Guardian. Heaven, W. D. (2023, December 19). These six questions will dictate the future of generative AI. MIT Technology Review. Jafarova, L. (2023, August 1). Artificial Intelligence and Digital Diplomacy. E-International Relations. Kurbalija, J. (2017, May 9). The impact of big data on geopolitics, negotiations, and diplomacy. DiploFoundation Blog. (Updated August 7, 2022). Lazard Geopolitical Advisory. (2023, October). Geopolitics of Artificial Intelligence. Liu, S. & Patton, D. (2023, December 22). China bans export of rare earths processing tech over national security. Reuters. McCaffrey, C. R., Jones, O., Krumbmüller, F., & Bell, D. (2022, December). 2023 Geostrategic Outlook. Ernest and Young Parthenon. McCaffrey, C. R., Jones, O., & Krumbmüller, F. (2023, December). 2024 Geostrategic Outlook. Ernest and Young Parthenon. Marcus, G. (2023, November 23). Critical national security questions should not be decided unilaterally by unelected tech leaders. Marcus at AI. Maslej, N., Fattorini, l., Brynjolfsson, E., Etchemendy, J., Ligett, K., Lyons, T., Manyika, J., Ngo, H., Niebles, J. C., Parli, V., Shoham, Y., Wald, R., Clark, J., & Perrault, R. (2023, April). The Artificial Intelligence Index 2023 Annual Report. Stanford University Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. Matania, E. & Sommer, U. (2023, November 20). Tech titans, cyber commons and the war in Ukraine: An incipient shift in international relations. International Relations, 0 (0). https://doi.org/10.1177/00471178231211500. Morini Bianzino, N., Delarue. M.-L., Maher, S., Koene, A., Kummer, K., & Hassan-Szlamka, F. (2023, September 27). The Artificial Intelligence (AI) global regulatory landscape. Ernest and Young Global. Pavel, B., Ke, I., Spirtas, M., Ryseff, J., Sabbag, L., Smith, G., Scholl, K., & Lumpkin, D. (2022) AI and Geopolitics: How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations? Rand Corporation. Sauer, P. (2023, Sept. 8). Elon Musk ´committed evil´ with Starlink order, says Ukrainian official. The Guardian. Schmidt, E. (2022). AI, Great Power Competition & National Security. Daedalus, 151(2), p.288-298. https://doi.org/10.1162/daed_a_01916. Shahbaz, A., Funk, A., Brody, J., Vesteinsson, K., Baker, G., Grothe, C., Barak, M., Masinsin, M., Modi, R., & Sutterlin, E. (eds.). (2023). Freedom on the Net 2023: The Repressive Power of Artificial Intelligence. Freedom House. Sheehan, M (2022, October 27). Biden’s Unprecedented Semiconductor Bet. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Stanford University. (n.d.). Global AI Vibrancy Tool. Who is leading the global AI race? Stanford University Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. Tacheva, J. and Ramasubramanian, S. (2023). AI Empire: Unraveling the interlocking systems of oppression in generative AI’s global order. Big Data and Society, 10(2), p. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1177/20539517231219241 Voo, J., Hemani, I. & Cassidy, D. (2022, September). National Cyber Power Index 2022. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School. DISCLAIMER: All views expressed on this blog are those of the author and do not represent the opinions of any other authority, agency, organization, employer or company. Diplomacy 4.0: The Rise of Artificial Intelligence as a Subject of Diplomatic Negotiations11/20/2023  As the Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution continues, governments and international organizations are rapidly expanding diplomatic negotiations on the subject. In this blog post, I continue analyzing Artificial Intelligence in diplomacy, now focusing on AI as a subject of Diplomacy. As in my previous post, Diplomacy 4.0: How Artificial Intelligence in Changing Diplomacy? diplomacy-40-how-artificial-intelligence-is-changing-diplomacy.html, I will be using DiploFoundation´s perspective on how AI influences diplomacy (DiploFoundation, 2019, p. 14-15), which divides them into three: a) AI as a diplomatic tool; b) AI as a topic of diplomacy, and c) the consequences of AI on the international system. First, let's say that it is tough to follow up on the discussion on AI, as most international organizations and other multilateral mechanisms analyze the topic from different perspectives. However, the concerns about AI did not appear with the launching of ChatGPT a year ago. In many multilateral forums, AI has been discussed for quite some time. AI´s impact on all fronts makes it a theme for discussion in every single arena, from ethics and biases to human rights and democracy, including data protection and economic development. Kurbalija (2023, November 10) indicates that AI governance needs to be seen as different layers, starting from the hardware, including the chips used to power AI systems, followed by data, algorithms, and apps. This division is useful as it helps focus on specific aspects of each layer. Many organizations see AI as a great tool to help countries achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. In general, the development of AI has significant policy implications in four main areas: social and economic, safety and security, human rights, and ethical concerns (Digwatch, n.d., Artificial Intelligence). Some recent examples of AI as an issue for diplomacy are:
In the following section, there is a brief review of some of the most important activities related to AI as a topic of diplomacy. For an in-depth view, make sure you visit AI’s Digwatch webpage. UNESCO’s Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. In November 2021, all member states of UNESCO (193 countries) adopted the Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. It was a significant milestone regarding AI because rarely all 193 countries agreed on such a controversial topic, even with no binding guidelines. Besides, it is a very influential document as it is the only one of such documents or efforts. “What makes the Recommendation exceptionally applicable are its extensive Policy Action Areas, which allow policymakers to translate the core values and principles into action with respect to data governance, environment and ecosystems, gender, education and research, and health and social wellbeing, among many other spheres” (UNESCO, n.d.). UN Secretary-General efforts on AI. The UN and its organs have been working on several fronts to promote greater international collaboration in digital technology. Besides UNESCO, the Secretary-General has been promoting several actions in preparation for the Summit of the Future in September 2024. Here are some of the highlights of the different efforts:
The UN Secretary-General Envoy on Technology. After a year after establishing the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology, in June 2022, António Guterres named Amandeep Singh Gill the first UN Secretary-General Envoy on Technology. This is significant because the office “coordinates the implementation of the Secretary-General’s Roadmap on Digital Cooperation and will advance work towards the Global Digital Compact” (Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology, n.d.) The UN High-Level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence In October 2023, “UN Secretary-General António Guterres unveiled a new advisory body dedicated to developing consensus around the risks posed by artificial intelligence and how international cooperation can help meet those challenges” (Henshall, 2023). The High-Level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence has 38 members and met for the first time in November 2023. “The Body will offer diverse perspectives and options on how AI can be governed for the common good, aligning internationally interoperable governance with human rights and the Sustainable Development Goals.” (Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology, n.d.) The Council of Europe’s Convention on AI and Human Rights. This is an important negotiation, as it could be the first international treaty on the subject. The Council of Europe (CoE) established the Committee on Artificial Intelligence in 2021 with the goal of “elaborating a legal instrument on the development, design, and application of artificial intelligence (AI) systems based on the CoE’s standards on human rights, democracy and the rule of law, and conducive to innovation” (Digwatch, n.d., Convention on AI and human rights). European Union Artificial Intelligence Act. The European Commission proposed the Artificial Intelligence Act as part of the European Union's digital strategy, which already includes the General Data Protection Regulation (DGPR) (2018) and the Digital Market Act(2022). “Once approved, these [AI regulations] will be the world’s first rules on AI” (European Parliament, 2023a). The EU standpoint is that “AI systems that can be used in different applications are analysed and classified according to the risk they pose to users. The different risk levels will mean more or less regulation” (EuropeanParliament, 2023a). In June 2023, the “European Parliament adopted its negotiating position on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act … ahead of talks with EU member states on the final shape of the law” (European Parliament, 2023b). The negotiations between member states have advanced. However, recently, there were some disagreements that might delay the approval, which was expected as early as December. AI governance is at the core of diplomatic negotiations. Because AI´s impact on the world is transformational, all diplomatic endeavors center on its governance/regulations. “When debates on AI governance first emerged, one overarching question was whether AI-related challenges (in areas such as safety, privacy, and ethics) call for new legal and regulatory frameworks, or whether existing ones could be adapted to also cover AI. Applying and adapting existing regulation was seen by many as the most suitable approach. But, as AI innovation accelerated and applications became more and more pervasive, AI-specific governance and regulatory initiatives started emerging at national, regional, and international levels” (Digwatch, n.d., Artificial Intelligence). As mentioned above, the UN Secretary-General has been on the lead in the possible establishment of a new intergovernmental body that oversees AI. The brand-new Advisory Body has the purpose of discussing possible alternatives. At the national level, many countries already issued some guidelines or regulations about AI. To learn more about each country´s effort, check out the Government AI Readiness Index 2022 or the IBM Global AI Adoption Index 2022. One of the main recommendations of the Future of International Cooperation Report 2023 is the creation of an Artificial Intelligence international agency that “would serve to:
Several authors, including Manor (2023) and Kurbalija (2023, November 8), indicate that most of the attention on AI risks is focused on long-term issues such as existential threats to humanity. However, more immediate consequences of machine learning systems need to be confronted, such as biases, accessibility, and others. Governments, international organizations, companies, and civil society should comprehensively address short-, medium-, and long-term AI risks to tackle them better (Kurbalija, 2023, November 8). The calls to create an AI international body are growing. The most often cited examples are the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, after explaining the difficulties of setting up a new international organization, Roberts suggests that the “discussion should move away from what an idealised institution could look like, towards how existing initiatives can realistically be built upon to bring about positive change” (2023). Furthermore, he proposes a decentralized approach, similar to the Paris Accord and welcomes the creation of the UN Advisory Body on AI that “provides a valuable outlet for progressing discussions on strengthening international coordination; for instance, through mapping which institutions are currently fulfilling international AI governance functions and providing recommendations for how gaps can be filled and duplication lessened” (Roberts, 2023). The recently held AI Safety Summit resulted in “a joint commitment by twenty-eight governments and leading AI companies subjecting advanced AI models to a battery of safety tests before release and a major push to support regular, scientist-led assessments of AI capabilities and safety risks” (Cuellar, 2023). In the next eleven months, until the Summit of Future, there will be extensive discussion on multiple venues regarding AI governance. The fact that major countries agreed to the Bletchley Declaration gives some hope to find a way to reach an agreement on the topic. The obstacles are significant, and the differences are pronounced. The geopolitical competition between China and the US and the existing worldwide turmoil are challenges facing negotiators. The consequences of AI on the international system, especially on geopolitics, could be the defining element of reaching an agreement or not. The next blog post will discuss the third perspective on how to study AI´s influence on diplomacy. Note: Many more organizations and topics are being discussed on AI at the international level, such as Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), so only a few topics were covered in this blog post. References Cuellar, M.F. (2023, November 9). The UK AI Safety Summit Opened a New Chapter in AI Diplomacy. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Digwatch. (n.d.). Artificial Intelligence. Digwatch. Digwatch. (n.d.). Convention on AI and human rights (CoE process). Digwatch. DiploFoundation. (2019). Mapping the challenges and opportunities of artificial intelligence for the conduct of diplomacy. DiploFoundation and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. European Parliament. (2023a, June 14). EU AI Act: first regulation on artificial intelligence. EuropeanParliament News. European Parliament. (2023b, June 14). MEPs ready to negotiate first-ever rules for safe and transparent AI. European Parliament News. Henshall, W. (2023, Oct 23). What the U.N.’s AI Advising Group Will Do. Time. Kurbalija, J. (2023, November 8). How can we deal with AI risks? DiploFoundation Blog. Kurbalija, J. (2023, November 10). Layers of AI governance [Byte-sized Insights] #5. DiploFoundation. [Video]. Manor, I. (2023, June 6). Shock and Awe: How AI is Sidestepping Regulation. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology. (n.d.). Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology webpage. Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology. (n.d.). High-Level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence. Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology webpage. Ponzio, R., Nudhara Yusuf, N., Mallinson, F. & Shahrukh, M. (2023). Future of International Cooperation Report 2023. The Stimson Center, Doha Forum, and Global Institute for Strategic Research. Roberts, H. (2023, August 11). Opinion – A New International AI Body Is No Panacea. E-International Relations. UNESCO. (n.d). Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. UNESCO webpage. Are you interested in AI and diplomacy? Check out my blog post about Resources on Diplomacy and Artificial Intelligence diplomacy-40-resources-on-diplomacy-and-artificial-intelligence.html DISCLAIMER: All views expressed on this blog are those of the author and do not represent the opinions of any other authority, agency, organization, employer or company.  Here is an updated version of Artificial Intelligence and Diplomacy resources, including AI tools, webpages, videos, studies, and articles. In the end, there is some information about using AI for teaching and learning.
Please share new ones in the comment section! You can also read my blog posts about the subject here:
AI tools and application/experiments/usage Diplo AI Writer @ DiploFoundation is a DiploFoundation artificial intelligence writer who publishes blog posts about the subject, including the DiploFoundation AI Diary. HumAInism by DiploFoundation has some AI tools related to diplomacy and arts. Can ChatGPT Explain Geopolitics? is an exercise to compare two essays and test if you can identify the one written by AI. It is published by Foreign Policy magazine. Interactive webpage about the cost of AI in different languages (Tokenization fairness). Webpages of research centers and institutions Artificial Intelligence and Diplomacy by DiploFoundation. Artificial Intelligence by Digwatch (Geneva Internet Platform) AI Now Institute. Center for AI and Digital Policy Center for the Advancement of Trustworthy AI Deloitte AI Institute for Government Global Partnership for AI. MILA, Quebec Artificial Intelligence Institute. OECD AI Observatory. Partnership on AI Tech Policy Press. UN-related sites: Road Map for Digital Cooperation and its updated road map) Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology webpage. Global Digital Compact (May 2023, High-Level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence Summit of the Future UNESCO´s Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. Videos Artificial Intelligence and Diplomacy Webinar. UNITAR and UOC. (2023, February 15). AI and Diplomacy: Challenges and opportunities. UNITAR (2023, May 10) Will AI take over diplomatic reporting? WebDebate #56. DiploFoundation (2023, February 7). What role can AI play in diplomatic negotiation? WebDebate #57. DiploFoundation (2023, March 7). How to Train Diplomats to Deal with AI and Data? WebDebate #58. DiploFoundation (2023, April 4). What Can We Learn About AI Ethics and Governance from Non-Western Thought? WebDebate #59. DiploFoundation (2023, May 2). AI for Peacemaking: new tools and opportunities for mediators. WebDebate #30. DiploFoundation (2019, June 19). AI on the international agenda - where do we go from here? WebDebate #26. DiploFoundation (2018, December 4). Studies and articles Bjola, C. (2019, October 19). Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. Real Institute Elcano. Bjola, C. (2020). Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. EDA Working Paper. Emirates Diplomatic Academy. Bjola, C. & Manor, I. (2023, April 25). ChatGPT: The end of diplomacy as we know it. Global Policy. Cocking, S. (2016, September 19). Using algorithms to achieve digital diplomacy. A conversation with Elad Ratson, Director of R&D at Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Irish Tech News. Deloitte AI Institute for Government & Google Cloud. (2022). Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Modernize American Statecraft. Dickow, M. and Jacob, D. (2018). The Global Debate on the Future of Artificial Intelligence. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik [SWV] Comment No. 23, p. 7. Digwatch. (2019, February 5). Artificial intelligence and diplomacy: A new tool for diplomacy? EVENT REPORT. Digwatch. Geneva Internet Platform. Digwatch. (2023, July 17). UN Security Council convenes to discuss AI risks. Digwatch. Geneva Internet Platform. DiploFoundation. (2019). Mapping the challenges and opportunities of artificial intelligence for the conduct of diplomacy. DiploFoundation and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. DiploFoundation. (2023, May 3). First full AI-reporting from the UN meeting. DiploFoundation blog. DiploFoundation. (2023, May 3). AI-based report of United Nations Security Council debate marks start of a new era in multilateral diplomacy. DiploFoundation blog. Elia Valori, G. (2023, July 8). Artificial Intelligence and the New World Order (1). Modern Diplomacy. Elia Valori, G. (2023, July 30). AI and the new world order: Economy and war (2). Modern Diplomacy. European Migration Network. (2022). The use of digitalisation and artificial intelligence in migration management: Joint EMN-OECD Inform. Galeotti, M. (2023, January 7). The age of AI diplomacy. The Spectator. Government AI Readiness Index 2022. Henshall, W. (2023, Oct 23). What the U.N.’s AI Advising Group Will Do. Time. IBM Global AI Adoption Index 2022. Jacobs. S (2023, September 7). Time 100 Most Influential People on AI. Time. Keohan, C. & Kralev, N. (2022, August 7). Want to Be a Diplomat? You Must Make it Past and A.I.’ Gateway’. Diplomatic Diary blog. Washington International Diplomatic Academy. Kurbalija, J. (2023, May 1). Why might AI cause more ´lost in translation´ worldwide? DiploFoundation Blog. Kurbajila, J. (2023, June 12). The case for bottom-up AI. Al Jazeera. Kurbalija, J. (2023, August 1). What can Socrates teach us about AI and prompting? DiploFoundation Blog. Kurbalija, J. (2023, November 8). How can we deal with AI risks? DiploFoundation Blog. Laferrière, H. & McPherson, A. (2019, April 24). Augmented Decision-Making @ IRCC. Presentation to the Symposium on Algorithmic Government. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Lederer, E. (2023, July 3). UN Council to hold first meeting on potential threats of artificial intelligence to global peace. AP News. Manor, I. (2023, February 21). The AI Moves In: ChatGPT’s Impact on Digital Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, March 30). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, April 4). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy - Part 2. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, April 18). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy - Part 3. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, June 15). AI’s Impact on Public Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, June 27). The Many Races that will shape AI. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, July 4). Real Fakes and the Future of Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, August 15). Towards the Strategic Use of AI in Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy blog. O´Neil, L (2023, August 12). The Truth in Tech: These Women Tried to Warn Us about AI. Rolling Stone. Petrov, A., La Malfa, E., Torr, P. H.S., & Bibi, A. (2023, May 17). Language Model Tokenizers Introduce Unfairness Between Languages. ArXiv:2350.1542. Ponzio, R., Nudhara Yusuf, N., Mallinson, F. & Shahrukh, M. (2023). Future of International Cooperation Report 2023. The Stimson Center, Doha Forum, and Global Institute for Strategic Research. Scott, B., Heumann, S., & Lorenz, P. (2018). Artificial Intelligence and Foreign Policy. Stiftung Neue Veranwortung. Stanzel, V. & Voelsen, D. (2022). Diplomacy and Artificial Intelligence Reflections on Practical Assistance for Diplomatic Negotiations. SWP Research Paper. Strachan, G. & Manor, I. (2023, July 14). ‘I can be a bastard too’- ChatGPT’s Real Contribution to Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Tarar, Z. (2023, February 23). Analysis - Could AI change the business of diplomacy? The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Tarar, Z. (2023, February 27). Analysis - Which AI tools should diplomats use today? The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Tarar, Z. (2023, August 28). Analysis - Harnessing AI for diplomacy: Five tools to make your work easier. The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Teleanu, S (2023, August 21). A journey of discovery: Using simulation and AI to teach and learn about digital governance. DiploFoundation Blog. Williams, A., Micali, M. & Gebru, T. (2022, October 23). The Exploited Labor Behind Artificial Intelligence. NOEMA. Williams, R. & Otto, L. (2022). Artificial Intelligence as a Tool of Public Diplomacy: Communication between the United States and Iran. The Thinker 90(1) p. 28-40. Information about using AI for teaching and learning. Mollick, E. (2022, December 13). How to…use AI to teach some of the hardest skills. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, January 24). The practical guide to using AI to do stuff. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, March 17). Using AI to make teaching easier & more impactful. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, July 15). How to Use AI to Do Stuff: An Opinionated Guide. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. Video series on Practical AI for Teachers and Students. YouTube. DISCLAIMER: All views expressed on this blog are that of the author and do not represent the opinions of any other authority, agency, organization, employer or company.  Today is the third anniversary of my blog. As I mentioned in the second-anniversary blog post, it has been a roller-coaster ride with tremendous ups and a few downs. Three years does not seem a lot of time, but many things have changed, for better or worse. I started the blog in September 2020, when the world was closed due to the pandemic. However, significant efforts were made to find a vaccine, thus allowing the world to reopen slowly, even after a series of surges generated by new variants of the virus. For a few years, the world, especially the great powers, has slowly turned economic, financial, data, and people exchanges into geopolitical weapons. To learn more, check out the great work The Power Atlas: Seven battlegrounds of a networked world. Some scholars state that a new era of deglobalization is moving forward as more countries build barriers to the free flow of trade, data, services, and people. The securitization of the economy, particularly semiconductors, critical minerals, and digital technology, is impacting the whole planet. The disruption of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the exponential race to launch the system that could be the winner has turned the world upside down. There is not a day when a new large language model is not released that supposedly will outperform all others. Students and teachers struggle to find the right approach to using AI, while many workers feel that machine learning will take their jobs and livelihoods. Even though many have asked to pause the development of AI, the race is growing exponentially while governments, societies, and people are trying to make sense of it and find the best approaches to regulate it. An interesting turn is the great concern of AI´s ethics. I clearly understand the worries about making AI work ethically. However, that level of concern about ethical behavior is not shown when talking about humans, governments, and organizations. Why do we not ask for ethical regulations of politicians and governments? Is fighting discrimination in the real world easier than in the digital realm? Three years ago, zoom diplomacy, vaccine diplomacy, and AI diplomacy were brand new terms. Today, even after the reopening of the world, most of the meetings worldwide are being held online, saving money and time but missing the human connection. Digital nomads have turned the globe into their offices, and many people have yet to return, if they ever do, to an office building. Nowadays, diplomacy might be living its fifth evolutionary tipping point, with the confrontation between traditional views of sovereignty and innovative forms of global governance (Neumann, 2020). The big problem is that time is running out, particularly regarding climate change. Just read the headlines this summer regarding the scorching temperatures worldwide. In terms of public diplomacy, the changes in the last years have been difficult to adjust. The transformation of Twitter into something else impacts the digital strategies of many countries, especially for basic accounts. Closing the door of data for research purposes is making it more challenging to listen and engage with audiences. The arrival of deep fakes, like Pope Francis wearing a puffer white jacket, is affecting the credibility of social media, reducing opportunities for governments to engage with foreign audiences. Disinformation is breaking havoc and helping radical views of people, politicians, and governments, making it more difficult to find common ground and collaborations. Regarding consular diplomacy, the pandemic pushed it into the forefront of every ministry of foreign affairs. Foreign ministers and public servants at home, ambassadors, diplomats, and consular officers overseas all work together to help stranded citizens abroad while countries close their borders. Many MFAs are still struggling to meet the demand for documentary services, as the backlog of visas, passports, and other consular documents has not been solved. Lately, there has been a growing amount of research on consular diplomacy, but the field has not yet matured. Many studies have identified consular services as a prime target for using AI systems to manage them. Despite the challenges that humanity confronts today, blogging has been a great experience that has opened the door to things I would not have thought of. Here are some of the milestones that I have achieved in the last three years of having my blog:
I am optimistic that the next three years will be better than the last, maybe just because we are reaching a breaking point. But also because people worldwide want a better future for themselves and their children. Neumann, I. B (2020). Diplomatic tense: A social evolutionary perspective on diplomacy. Manchester Univesity Press. Experimenting with AI Below is a list created by generative AI about the significant milestones of diplomacy in the last three years. Do you agree with the results? Prompt: You are a professor of diplomatic studies. Identify the major changes in the practice of diplomacy that have occurred since January 2020, giving a brief description and using bullets. Please be specific and concise. Bing.chat (creative mode) response: Some of the major changes in the practice of diplomacy that have occurred since January 2020 are:
Bard by Google: Sure, here are the major changes in the practice of diplomacy that have occurred since January 2020:
Perplexity Major changes in the practice of diplomacy since January 2020 include:
Overall, the changing nature of diplomacy in the 21st century requires sustained attention and adaptation to meet the challenges of today and tomorrow. DISCLAIMER: All views expressed on this blog are that of the author and do not represent the opinions of any other authority, agency, organization, employer or company.  ChatGPT, the next generation of conversational AI, could have a profound impact on diplomacy, disrupting how diplomats communicate, negotiate, and manage crises (Bjola & Manor, 2023). The avalanche of new Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems is non-stop. It is impossible to keep up with the AI race that began in earnest with the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 (Manor 2023f). Today, at least four Large Language Models (LLMs) compete for the world’s attention: ChatGPT (including Bing.chat), Bard, Llama 2, and Claude. Not all are available in every country, and some are free. Many questions about Machine Learning (ML) have been raised, from the data sets used for their training, including privacy and intellectual property rights, to their biases and hallucinations. AI could prove to be a hugely disrupting force. Considering the fast pace of development, it is hard to grasp AI's impact on diplomacy. However, there is a growing number of studies about how these new systems are changing diplomacy. In this blog post, I continue with the Diplomacy 4.0 series. First, I explain why generative AI differs from previous AI systems, followed by an analysis of ML as a tool for diplomacy. In another post, I will write about AI as a topic of diplomacy and the geopolitical impact that it is having. To learn about AI basics, check out my blog post, Diplomacy 4.0: The basics of Artificial Intelligence. 1. Why all the hype about AI if it has been with us for many years? First, it is crucial to understand why the arrival of ChatGPT generated such an uproar. Manor (2023a; 2023b, 2023e) indicates that the significant factor of ChatGPT, a generative AI system, is that every single person with a computer and internet connection could use it. People do not need coding abilities or advanced mathematical training, so these systems “enable everyday users to harness the awesome power of AI” (Manor, 2023e). I am an example of this revolution, as I have used it to create a short video, suggest titles for my blog posts, such as this one, summarize articles, and experiment with a Chatbot. The new LLMs´ capability to converse with us in a human-like manner rather than with computational codes is a game-changing experience. Furthermore, the ability to continue learning and develop new skills has been breathtaking, making some AI experts nervous and leading to a request to pause its development. Besides, technological developments, from the written word to telegraphy and the internet, have always changed diplomatic practices, so the AI revolution is not different from the previous advances. However, up until now, humans were the only actors. So, with AI, a new era of interactions between humans and machines is emerging. For a historical review of the relationship between technology and diplomacy, visit the excellent site created by DiploFoundation. So, how is AI changing diplomacy? One way to study the effects of ML in diplomacy is by looking at the relationship between the two. 2. Three perspectives on the relationship between diplomacy and artificial intelligence A few years ago, the DiploFoundation proposed a framework for analyzing the relationship between diplomacy and AI programs (2019, p. 6). The study states that we need to see it from three different perspectives:
As mentioned, I focus on the first issue in this post. I will write about the other two in a separate post. 3. AI as a tool for diplomacy In recent years, a small but steady flow of studies have analyzed how AI can support the core diplomatic functions of communication, representation, and negotiation (see list of resources at the bottom of the post). The ability of ML to process enormous quantities of data in a few seconds and the multiple ways of analyzing data is crucial for diplomacy. “AI can be a useful tool in facilitating tasks that require diplomats to work with, digest, or research vast amounts of text” (DiploFoundation, 2019, p. 26). AI could “mine internal knowledge to provide insights” (Tarar 2023a) that diplomats might miss on different subjects, possibly expanding the options available to move forward. Having these types of resources would enhance the diplomat´s analysis and decision-making (Galeotti, 2023). Among the different options, Deloitte AI Institute for Government & Google Cloud have identified four different uses for AI: automate, predict, detect, and simulate (2022, p. 5-6) across three core functions: diplomacy, foreign assistance, and consular affairs, plus an additional one centered on mission-enabling functions (Ibid, p. 7-10). Even though there have been some issues with AI for hiring people, such as the one in Amazon, the U.S. Department of State is applying AI systems in the evaluation process of future diplomats. ML reviews thousands of essays submitted in the recruitment process (Keohan & Kralev, 2022). Other possible uses of ML systems for diplomacy are sentiment, predictive, and descriptive analysis (Bjola, 2019, p. 5). Manor and Tarar (2023a; 2023b) suggest that AI could save diplomats time by creating official documents and statements. AI could bridge the gap between people speaking different languages, as it can be used for interpreting in real time. It could also help translate newspapers and social media postings (Tarar, 2023b). However, relying solely upon these systems could be problematic by ignoring “cultural differences and nuances in intercultural communication” (Kurbalija, 2023). Many new ML applications are available now to help transcribe videos and audio in a fraction of the time humans; it could help in the tedious task of creating meetings´ minutes and do-outs (Tarar, 2023b). For example, the DiploFoundation used its DiploGPT system to provide a “just-in-time reporting from the six hour” UN Security Council debate titled Futureproofing trust for sustaining peace that took place on May 3, 2023 (DiploFoundation, 2023a; DiploFoundation, 2023b). Another use of AI is to train diplomats using simulations. Recently, Teleanu (2023) shared her experience using a Chabot in a simulation of a multilateral negotiation in a digital governance course. LLMs could also be helpful to do research (Tarar, 2023b) and teach and learn new abilities and skills if used correctly (Mollick, 2022; Mollick, 2023a, 2023b, 2023c). Some studies analyze or propose specific areas in which AI can enhance the work of diplomats and ministries of foreign affairs (MFAs), such as consular services, negotiations, crisis management, and public diplomacy. So, let’s review each of these four topics. 3.1 Consular Services Many studies have identified consular affairs as an area that could benefit from AI. (Bjola, 2019; Bjola, 2020; Deloitte, 2022; Manor, 2023a; Manor, 2023f, Tarar 2023a). As an area of routine operations based on processes, some consular services could automatize with AI (Bjola, 2019, p. 4; Deloitte, 2022, p. 8-9). Today, some countries are already implementing ML programs in consular services. Canada (Laferrière & McPherson, 2019), Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Hungary, and Finland are already using AI in some visa and migration procedures, including identity fraud detection, cases management, and dealing with customers (European Migration Network, 2022, p. 9-12). Besides, eleven European countries are working on several AI projects. To see all of them, see European Migration Network, 2022, p. 11-12. During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, several MFAs utilized chatbots to provide information to their citizens stranded abroad due to the closing of borders (Birka, Kļaviņš, & Kits, 2022). 3.2 Crises management and prevention MFAs, including the UK and Germany, are already deploying “AI tools to monitor open data for early crisis detection – with the aim of expanding this towards gaining insights for crisis prevention” (DiploFoundation, 2019, p. 26). ML systems “can make sense of the nature and gravity of the events in real-time, streamline the decision-making process, manage the public’s expectations, and facilitate crisis termination” (Bjola, 2019, p. 5). 3.3 Public Diplomacy Public diplomacy is another area in which ML systems could make significant contributions. For example, “AI could assist these [public diplomacy] efforts by providing reliable diagnostics of the scope conditions for impact via network, cluster and semantic analyses” (Bjola, 2019, p. 6; Bjola, 2020, p. 29). Besides, Williams & Otto (2022) analyze the different issues related to AI that affect the public diplomacy of Iran and the United States, providing some examples. Stanzel and Voelsen (2022) have proposed using ML to perform sentiment analysis of public media regarding a trade negotiation (p. 27), which can also be used for public diplomacy. Also, ML could improve the performance of a campaign by adopting a more attractive narrative (Manor, 2023e). 3.4 Negotiations Negotiation, an essential aspect of diplomacy, can also be enhanced using AI systems (Manor, 2023a). Programs like Cognitive Trade Advisor, which “answers questions on rules of origin across a vast number of trade agreements,” can assist negotiations, especially by small countries (DiploFoundation, 2019, p. 26). In exciting research about the usage of AI in diplomatic negotiations based on two case studies, Stanzel and Voelsen (2022) conclude that AI “has the potential to become an important, possibly indispensable tool for preparing and conducting diplomatic negotiations…and those who best succeed in embracing the possibilities of machine learning will have an advantage in negotiations” (p. 30). Furthermore, they made some recommendations, including to experiment and appraise these systems, create a data strategy, “establish and institutionalize appropriate networks” (Ibid, p. 31) “and draw up normative guidelines for the use of AI in the context of diplomacy” (Ibid, p. 6). 4. Challenges of AI as a tool for diplomacy As seen here, MFAs and diplomats can benefit from using AI systems. However, to take full advantage, they need to overcome some challenges and mitigate the inherent risks. “ChatGPT, the next generation of conversational AI, could have a profound impact on diplomacy, disrupting how diplomats communicate, negotiate, and manage crises” (Bjola & Manor, 2023). One of the most significant tests is the potential for AI to generate disinformation and deep fakes on an enormous scale, which could be impossible to identify and could dampen the ability of diplomats to respond (Manor, 2023d; 2023g). According to Manor (2023g), this could lead to multiple realities. “Gaps between diplomats’ statements and ChatGPT answers may thus decrease public confidence in diplomats and diplomatic institutions” (Manor 2023e). Two examples were Pope Francis wearing a puffer white jacket that became viral or Donald Trump being arrested by the police. Generative AI already poses a challenge to managing countries' image and reputation, as shown by Manor (2023c) in the cases of Poland, Palestine, and China, where the image these governments try to portray differs from the perspective provided by chatbots. Besides, “AI-generated content could negatively impact a nation's reputation, the credibility of its leaders and undo previous diplomatic efforts” (Bjola & Manor, 2023). All these are particularly worrisome, considering that the media has pushed the narrative of AI systems as trustworthy and credible (Manor, 2023c; 2023a; 2023e). Besides, there is growing evidence that most ML programs have some biases in favor of Western perspectives vs. the rest of the world. (Manor 2023c; 2023e). Furthermore, the foundational models used for most chatbots have centered on English language sources, affecting the views and perspectives of other languages, including their computational costs. Manor (2023a) details that one of the main challenges of AI systems such as ChatGPT is continuing to expand the gap between reality and the views generated by digital technologies that support the growing attraction of populist leaders. These leaders can undermine governments’ institutions, including diplomats, and affect their efforts to find global solutions to global problems. This view contradicts Simon Anholt´s proposal in the Good Country Index, in which governments should have a dual mandate: support their citizens while backing the world at large. Another challenge is the effect of LLMs on the agency of diplomats. Bjola and Manor (2023) explain that “while automation may be cost-effective, it may not necessarily translate into effectiveness in diplomacy, which relies heavily on informal conversations and personal relationships between diplomats.” AI training for diplomats and other actors involved in foreign policy is essential to fully take advantage of ML benefits. Experimenting with LLMs will help diplomats identify these technologies' potential pitfalls (Manor, 2023g). However, “placing more diplomats in front of computer screens and training them to converse with AIs rather than humans may result in diplomats who are ill-equipped to manage diplomatic relations with other states” (Bjola & Manor, 2023). Placing more diplomats in front of computer screens and training them to converse with AIs rather than humans may result in diplomats who are ill-equipped to manage diplomatic relations with other states (Bjola & Manor, 2023). It is also crucial that diplomats understand that anything they feed into the AI systems could be used for training; therefore, it is imperative to avoid providing sensitive and confidential information (Tarar, 2023b). I wonder if it could be possible that by good prompting and some hacks, people can pinpoint some data provided to the LLM with confidential information. One way to meet these challenges is to regulate AI (Manor 2023a), an issue that will be covered in the next post. 5. Preliminary conclusions Generative AI has arrived, and it is not going anywhere. The genie is out of the bottle. Therefore, governments, diplomats, and people cannot relax and wait and see what happens next. They must develop a comprehensive approach that includes training for everybody, some sort of regulations, and trends analysis. A meaningful action that MFAs can implement now is engaging in technology diplomacy or Techplomacy, which entails dialogue and building relationships with the tech ecosystem, including direct contact with the Tech giants, most of which are at the forefront of the AI race. Countries like Australia, France, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom have gone further and have designed digital foreign policy strategies, which I believe is a must in today´s world, more and more embedded in the cyber realm. See also Tech diplomacy practice in the San Francisco Bay Area. In the next blog post, I will focus on AI as a topic for Diplomacy and the impact that LLMs are having on the geopolitics of today´s global disorder, as ML is becoming a source of power. You can also read my blog posts about the subject here:
Resources on AI and Diplomacy Here is a list of resources on AI and diplomacy. Please share new ones! AI tools and application/experiments/usage Diplo AI Writer @ DiploFoundation is a DiploFoundation artificial intelligence writer who publishes blog posts about the subject. HumAInism by DiploFoundation has some AI tools related to diplomacy and arts. Can ChatGPT Explain Geopolitics? is an exercise to compare two essays and test if you can identify the one written by AI. It is published by Foreign Policy magazine. Interactive webpage about the cost of AI in different languages (Tokenization fairness). Webpages Artificial Intelligence and Diplomacy by DiploFoundation. Artificial Intelligence by Digwatch (Geneva Internet Platform) Center for AI and Digital Policy Center for the Advancement of Trustworthy AI Partnership on AI Videos Artificial Intelligence and Diplomacy Webinar. UNITAR and UOC. (2023, February 15). AI and Diplomacy: Challenges and opportunities. UNITAR (2023, May 10) Studies and articles Bjola, C. (2019, October 19). Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. Real Institute Elcano. Bjola, C. (2020). Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. EDA Working Paper. Emirates Diplomatic Academy. Bjola, C. & Manor, I. (2023, April 25). ChatGPT: The end of diplomacy as we know it. Global Policy. Cocking, S. (2016, September 19). Using algorithms to achieve digital diplomacy. A conversation with Elad Ratson, Director of R&D at Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Irish Tech News. Deloitte AI Institute for Government & Google Cloud. (2022). Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Modernize American Statecraft. Dickow, M. and Jacob, D. (2018). The Global Debate on the Future of Artificial Intelligence. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik [SWV] Comment No. 23, p. 7. Digwatch. (2019, February 5). Artificial intelligence and diplomacy: A new tool for diplomacy? EVENT REPORT. Digwatch. Geneva Internet Platform. Digwatch. (2023, July 17). UN Security Council convenes to discuss AI risks. Digwatch. Geneva Internet Platform DiploFoundation. (2019). Mapping the challenges and opportunities of artificial intelligence for the conduct of diplomacy. DiploFoundation and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. DiploFoundation. (2023, May 3). First full AI-reporting from the UN meeting. DiploFoundation blog. DiploFoundation. (2023, May 3). AI-based report of United Nations Security Council debate marks start of a new era in multilateral diplomacy. DiploFoundation blog. Elia Valori, G. (2023, July 8). Artificial Intelligence and the New World Order (1). Modern Diplomacy. Elia Valori, G. (2023, July 30). AI and the new world order: Economy and war (2). Modern Diplomacy. European Migration Network. (2022). The use of digitalisation and artificial intelligence in migration management: Joint EMN-OECD Inform. Galeotti, M. (2023, January 7). The age of AI diplomacy. The Spectator. Keohan, C. & Kralev, N. (2022, August 7). Want to Be a Diplomat? You Must Make it Past and A.I.’ Gateway’. Diplomatic Diary blog. Washington International Diplomatic Academy. Kurbalija, J. (2023, May 1). Why might AI cause more ´lost in translation´ worldwide? DiploFoundation Blog. Kurbajila, J. (2023, June 12). The case for bottom-up AI. Al Jazeera. Kurbalija, J. (2023, August 1). What can Socrates teach us about AI and prompting? DiploFoundation Blog. Laferrière, H. & McPherson, A. (2019, April 24). Augmented Decision-Making @ IRCC. Presentation to the Symposium on Algorithmic Government. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Lederer, E. (2023, July 3). UN Council to hold first meeting on potential threats of artificial intelligence to global peace. AP News. Manor, I. (2023, February 21). The AI Moves In: ChatGPT’s Impact on Digital Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, March 30). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, April 4). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy - Part 2. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, April 18). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy - Part 3. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, June 15). AI’s Impact on Public Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, June 27). The Many Races that will shape AI. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, July 4). Real Fakes and the Future of Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, August 15). Towards the Strategic Use of AI in Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy blog. O´Neil, L (2023, August 12). The Truth in Tech: These Women Tried to Warn Us about AI. Rolling Stone. Petrov, A., La Malfa, E., Torr, P. H.S., & Bibi, A. (2023, May 17). Language Model Tokenizers Introduce Unfairness Between Languages. ArXiv:2350.1542. Scott, B., Heumann, S., & Lorenz, P. (2018). Artificial Intelligence and Foreign Policy. Stiftung Neue Veranwortung. Stanzel, V. & Voelsen, D. (2022). Diplomacy and Artificial Intelligence Reflections on Practical Assistance for Diplomatic Negotiations. SWP Research Paper. Strachan, G. & Manor, I. (2023, July 14). ‘I can be a bastard too’- ChatGPT’s Real Contribution to Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Tarar, Z. (2023, February 23). Analysis - Could AI change the business of diplomacy? The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Tarar, Z. (2023, February 27). Analysis - Which AI tools should diplomats use today? The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Tarar, Z. (2023, August 28). Analysis - Harnessing AI for diplomacy: Five tools to make your work easier. The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium Teleanu, S (2023, August 21). A journey of discovery: Using simulation and AI to teach and learn about digital governance. DiploFoundation Blog. Williams, A., Micali, M. & Gebru, T. (2022, October 23). The Exploited Labor Behind Artificial Intelligence. NOEMA. Williams, R. & Otto, L. (2022). Artificial Intelligence as a Tool of Public Diplomacy: Communication between the United States and Iran. The Thinker 90(1) p. 28-40. Information about using AI for teaching and learning Mollick, E. (2022, December 13). How to…use AI to teach some of the hardest skills. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, January 24). The practical guide to using AI to do stuff. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, March 17). Using AI to make teaching easier & more impactful. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, July 15). How to Use AI to Do Stuff: An Opinionated Guide. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. Video series on Practical AI for Teachers and Students. YouTube. References Birka, I., Kļaviņš, D., & Kits, R. (2022). Duty of Care: Consular Diplomacy Response of Baltic and Nordic Countries to COVID-19. The Hague Journal of Diplomacy, 18(1), p. 133-164. https://doi.org/10.1163/1871191x-bja10115 Bjola, C. (2019, October 19). Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. Real Institute Elcano. Bjola, C. (2020). Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. EDA Working Paper. Emirates Diplomatic Academy. Bjola, C. & Manor, I. (2023, April 25). ChatGPT: The end of diplomacy as we know it. Global Policy. Deloitte AI Institute for Government & Google Cloud. (2022). Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Modernize American Statecraft. DiploFoundation. (2019). Mapping the challenges and opportunities of artificial intelligence for the conduct of diplomacy. DiploFoundation and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. DiploFoundation. (2023a, May 3). First full AI-reporting from the UN meeting. DiploFoundation blog. DiploFoundation. (2023b, May 3). AI-based report of United Nations Security Council debate marks start of a new era in multilateral diplomacy. DiploFoundation blog. European Migration Network. (2022). The use of digitalisation and artificial intelligence in migration management: Joint EMN-OECD Inform. Galeotti, M. (2023, January 7). The age of AI diplomacy. The Spectator. Keohan, C. & Kralev, N (2022, August 7). Want to Be a Diplomat? You Must Make it Past and A.I.’ Gateway’. Diplomatic Diary blog. Washington International Diplomatic Academy. Kurbalija, J. (2023, May 1). Why might AI cause more ´lost in translation´ worldwide? DiploFoundation Blog. Laferrière, H. & McPherson, A. (2019, April 24). Augmented Decision-Making @ IRCC. Presentation to the Symposium on Algorithmic Government. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Manor, I. (2023a, February 21). The AI Moves In: ChatGPT’s Impact on Digital Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023b, March 30). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023c, April 4). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy - Part 2. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023d, April 18). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy - Part 3. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023e, June 15). AI’s Impact on Public Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023f, June 27). The Many Races that will shape AI. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023g, July 4). Real Fakes and the Future of Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Mollick, E. (2022, December 13). How to…use AI to teach some of the hardest skills. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023a, January 24). The practical guide to using AI to do stuff. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023b, March 17). Using AI to make teaching easier & more impactful. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023c, July 15). How to Use AI to Do Stuff: An Opinionated Guide. One Useful Thing blog. Stanzel, V. & Voelsen, D. (2022). Diplomacy and Artificial Intelligence Reflections on Practical Assistance for Diplomatic Negotiations. SWP Research Paper. Tarar, Z. (2023a, February 27). Analysis - Which AI tools should diplomats use today? The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Tarar, Z. (2023b, August 28). Analysis - Harnessing AI for diplomacy: Five tools to make your work easier. The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Teleanu, S (2023, August 21). A journey of discovery: Using simulation and AI to teach and learn about digital governance. DiploFoundation Blog. Williams, R. & Otto, L. (2022). Artificial Intelligence as a Tool of Public Diplomacy: Communication between the United States and Iran. The Thinker 90(1) p. 28-40. DISCLAIMER: All views expressed on this blog are those of the author and do not represent the opinions of any other authority, agency, organization, employer or company. Below are some images created by Bing.chat. Interestingly, I explicitly asked not to include robots, but the system did not seem to care. What are your thoughts? This is a video that I just made with AI. It took me literally five minutes, and most of the time was to find out how to do it. I used HeyGen. Amazing  November 2022 could be a historical moment for humanity. OpenAI launched its ChatGPT Artificial Intelligence (AI) program, which is already changing our world. A leading expert, Andrew Ng, equates AI advances that will radically transform society to the arrival of electricity at the end of the 19th century (Jewell, 2019). Besides, just a couple of weeks ago, the stock of Nvidia, a semiconductor manufacturing company that produces chips for AI computing, skyrocketed 25 percent in one day (Aratani, 2023), becoming more valuable than Intel. AI has been used for some time without much hoopla. We have been using AI in the voice command assistants such as Amazon’s Alexa, Apple’s Siri and HomePod, and Google’s Home. Also, AI makes music recommendations on Spotify or for products on Amazon’s webpage. However, in November 2022, ChatGPT propelled artificial intelligence into the limelight of the tech revolution. Why? It was the first question I had after participating in the Summit on Digital Diplomacy and Governance, organized by DiploFoundation, but I did not know the answer. Fortunately, now I think I can answer the question: Because ChatGPT is a Generative AI that can produce new content, it is very easy to use and is widely accessible (it is the fastest platform to reach 100 million users). Since then, I have been trying to understand the basics of AI, but I am still struggling. Right now, there is so much information about it that it is mind-blowing to find reliable resources. Many are riding the AI wave taking advantage of its novelty and the ignorance of regular people. In this blog post, I share my understanding of AI’s basics, while another post will focus on the impact on diplomacy and other fields. Warning: I have also been playing around with Google’s Bard and Microsoft’s Bing.chat on an Edge browser; therefore, you will find some of their outputs in the blog post. So, what is Artificial Intelligence? According to Bing.chat: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a field of computer science that aims to create intelligent machines that work and learn like humans. AI is based on the idea that machines can be made to think and learn like humans. It involves the development of algorithms and computer programs that can perform tasks that would normally require human intelligence. The AI we use daily is mostly the first type, also known as Weak AI, while the second is usually defined as Strong AI. A significant milestone that we have not reached is when computer programs achieve technological singularity, which is “a point in time when humans lose control over their technological inventions and subsequent developments due to the rise of machine consciousness and, as a result, their superior intelligence” (Gaona, 2023). From Frankenstein to Odyssey 2000, humans have been attracted to and fearful of non-human entities that eventually might control or even destroy us. Ambitious computers and killer robots have been part of our imagination for many years; however, as we will see today, key experts are warning about AI. But let’s start by looking over the development of artificial intelligence first. A bit of history of AI. In 1955 John McCarthy coined the term artificial intelligence while organizing the 1956 Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence Conference (McCarthy et al., 1955). However, Alan Turing is also considered not only a critical WWII code-breaker but an essential contributor to AI. He created the Turing Test, where a computer can pass as a human in engaging with people. Remember Deep Blue? Arthur Samuels worked for IBM for many years and in his free time, he developed a program that could play chess (Brooks, 2017), the predecessor of Deep Blue, that in 1997 was able to beat the chess world champion (Yao, 2022). I still remember when the news broke worldwide and generated a lot of debate about computers and AI, just like what is happening now with ChatGPT. In the early 2000s, artificial neural networks were greatly improved because of the reduction of storage costs and the arrival of new types of chips, significantly impacting AI’s advancement. Artificial neural networks “are systems that are similar to the human brain in the way they learn and process information. They enable AIs to learn from experience, as a person would” (Kleinman & Vallance, 2023), exponentially expanding AI capabilities. Furthermore, AI “transformers” programs were added to the mix in recent years, substantially impacting its development. Generative AI jumped into the limelight in late 2022, starting an AI race between tech giants to launch more AI programs (Grant and Weise, 2023). AI now covers different areas, such as computer vision, automation, robotics, and natural language processing. One of the most important subfields of AI is Machine Learning. Machine Learning in AI. A simple definition of Machine Learning (ML) is when a program “performs a function with the data given to it and gets progressively better over time” (Grieve, 2023). For ML, the systems rely on data, enormous quantities of it, which has generated questions about data privacy and protection, copyright discussions, and inherited biases of the information used that affect the program’s overall performance and can replicate existing discriminatory practices. Recently, Japan announced that it “will not enforce copyrights in data used in AI training” (Technomancers.ai 2023), significantly impacting AI’s further developments, as companies won’t be able to protect their copyright information. There are three categories of ML: supervised, unsupervised, and reinforced. Machado (2016) simply explains the differences between these three categories, including some rewards in reinforced learning. However, it is hard to understand how the machine is rewarded. I must continue to research to truly understand the mechanics behind ML. However, here is what Bard came up with: How does reinforced learning work? Besides, there is also deep learning “that structures algorithms in layers to create an “artificial neural network” that can learn and make intelligent decisions on its own” (Grieve, 2023). Here is Bard’s response to the question: How does Deep Learning work?: Deep learning is a type of machine learning that uses artificial neural networks to learn from data. Artificial neural networks are inspired by the human brain, and they are made up of layers of interconnected nodes. Each node performs a simple mathematical operation, and the network learns to perform complex tasks by adjusting the weights of the connections between the nodes. Large Language Models and Generative AI. According to the Center for Humane Technology (2023), AI experienced a massive jump a few years ago with the creation of AI “transformers” in Large Language Models (LLMs). LLMs are a subsection of Deep Learning and require vast amounts of data and pre-training, and the opportunity to be fine-tuned for specific purposes (Google Cloud Tech 2023a); therefore, only top tech companies, such as Meta and Google can afford to develop this type of models. Generative AI, also known as GenAI, is also a subsection of Deep Leaning and is related to LLMs, but according to my understanding, it is not precisely the same. Google Cloud Tech (2023b) defines GenAI as a “type of AI that creates new content based on what it has learned from existing content”, which is a crucial advancement from other AI programs. ChatGPT and Bard are Generative AI platforms. Using foundational models, GenAI can create all sorts of new outputs, using natural language prompts rather than computer programing, from videos to music and text. It even can make new code, which is one of the issues of the fear of AI. Generative AI’s explosion in recent months has renewed the call for regulation before it is too late. So far, as with most digital technologies, guidelines and norms are limited compared to most other industries. In the next section, I discuss this difference. Differences between AI and other industry security standards. Since the launch of ChatGPT, the discussion on the regulation of AI has generated one of the most important debates of our era. One of the fathers of AI, Geffrey Hinton, resigned from Google to be able to call for regulating AI (Taylor & Hern, 2023; Kleinman & Vallance, 2023). Even the CEO of OpenAI, Samuel Altman, “implored lawmakers to regulate artificial intelligence” in a Senate hearing (Cang, 2023). Other tech experts, including Steve Wozniak and Elon Musk, signed Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter in which they ask “AI labs to immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4” due to their inherent risks. However, it is fascinating to compare the approach that we have to AI and any other industry. In this regard, Quebec’s Artificial Intelligence Institute’s Chief Executive, Valérie Pisano, states that: “The technology is put out there, and as the system interacts with humankind, its developers wait to see what happens and make adjustments based on that. As a collective, we would never accept this mindset in any other industrial field. There’s something about tech and social media where we’re like: ‘Yeah, sure, we’ll figure it out later’” (Taylor & Hern, 2023). Imagine having the same approach to aviation, nuclear power, or basic appliances. The world would be in deep chaos without safety regulations on these subjects. But, for some reason, we are doing this with AI today. Some countries are working on some regulations. For example, the United States published the Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights, the European Union is debating an AI Act while the Council of Europe is negotiating an AI and human rights accord, and UNESCO issued the Recommendation on the ethics of artificial intelligence. However, there are no binging regulations, with a few exceptions, and the implications for the economy and politics of the planet are immense. In The A.I. Dilemma (2023), Raskin and Harris explain convincingly the dangers of AI, and they recommend that tech companies should slow down the public deployment of AI systems to be able to regulate and avoid possible catastrophic results. They cite the results of a survey among AI experts in which “50% of A.I. researchers believe there’s a 10% or greater chance that humans go extinct from our inability to control AI” (2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, 2022). Manor (2023) evaluates the recent developments in AI, from the excitement about new opportunities to doomsday scenarios and the creation of new companies. He argues that all these activities, called “disruptor/innovator playbook” by tech moguls, are to ensure that governments and societies allow tech companies to self-regulate. So far, it seems that it is working. However, I hope no massive AI-related incident makes governments rush into regulation. In another post, I discuss the impact of AI on diplomacy. diplomacy-40-how-artificial-intelligence-is-changing-diplomacy.html. I just wanted to give you a heads-up that you can stay tuned. You can also read my blog posts about the subject here:
AI resources Here are some interesting resources about AI: Institutes and other organizations: DiploFoundation AI Diary. DiploFoundation HumAInism (AI at Diplo). DigWatch Artificial Intelligence by Geneva Internet Platform. DigWatch AI governmental initiatives by Geneva Internet Platform. MILA, Quebec Artificial Intelligence Institute. OECD AI Observatory. Global Partnership for AI. AI Now Institute. Tech Policy Press. Courses: AI for Everyone Course (Coursera) Videos: Center for Humane Technology (2023, March 9). The A.I. Dilemma. [Video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/xoVJKj8lcNQ. Google Cloud Tech (2023a, May 8). Introduction to large language models. [Video]. YouTube https://youtu.be/zizonToFXDs. Google Cloud Tech (2023b, May 8). Introduction to Generative AI. [Video]. YouTube https://youtu.be/G2fqAlgmoPo DiploFoundation (2023, February 7). Will AI take over diplomatic reporting? WebDebate #56. [Video]. YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com/live/QuRX-2NQ0zQ?feature=share DiploFoundation (2023, March 7). What role can AI play in diplomatic negotiation? (WebDebate #57). [Video]. YouTube https://www.youtube.com/live/qm_JwZBrflE?feature=share DiploFoundation (2023, April 4). How to Train Diplomats to Deal With AI and Data? (WebDebate #58). [Video]. YouTube https://www.youtube.com/live/m5KS3VY929Q?feature=share DiploFoundation (2023, May 2). What Can We Learn About AI Ethics and Governance From Non-Western Thought? WebDebate #59. [Video]. YouTube https://www.youtube.com/live/wdzQ26HYEmA?feature=share REFERENCES Aratani, L. (2023, May 30). Nvidia becomes first chipmaker value at more than $1Tn amid AI boom. The Guardian. Brooks, R. (2017, August 28). [For&AI] Machine Learning Explained. Rodney Brooks Robots, AI, and other Stuff Blog. Center for Humane Technology (2023, March 9). The A.I. Dilemma. [Video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/xoVJKj8lcNQ. Gaona, M. (2023, May 15). Entering the singularity: Has AI reached the point of no return? The Hill. Google Cloud Tech (2023a, May 8). Introduction to large language models. [Video]. YouTube https://youtu.be/zizonToFXDs. Google Cloud Tech (2023b, May 8). Introduction to Generative AI. [Video]. YouTube https://youtu.be/G2fqAlgmoPo Grant, N. & Weise, K. (2023, April 7). In A.I. Race, Microsoft and Google Choose Sped over Caution. The New York Times. Grieve, P. (2023, May 23). Deep learning vs. machine learning. What’s the difference? Zendesk Blog. Jewell, C. (2019, June). Artificial intelligence: the new electricity. WIPO Magazine. Kleinman, Z. & Vallance, C. (2023, May 3). AI’ godfather’ Geoffrey Hinton warns of dangers as he quits Google. BBC. Machado, G. (2016, October 6). ML basics: Supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning. Medium blog. Manor, I. (2023, June 6). Shock and Awe: How AI is Sidestepping Regulation. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog (digdipblog). Marr, B. (2018, February 14). The Key Definitions of Artificial Intelligence (AI) that Explain its Importance. Forbes. McCarthy, J., Minsk, M.L., Rochester, N. & Shannon, C.E. (1955, August 31). A Proposal for the Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence. Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter. (2023, March 22). Taylor, J. & Hern, A. (2023, May 2). ‘Godfather of AI’ Geoffrey Hinton quits Google and warns over dangers of misinformation. The Guardian. Technomancers.ai. (2023, June 1). Japan Goes All In: Copyright Doesn’t Apply to AI Training. Communications of the ACM. Yao, D. (2022, May 10). 25 years ago today: how Deep Blue vs. Kasparov changed AI forever. AI Business. DISCLAIMER: All views expressed on this blog are that of the author and do not represent the opinions of any other authority, agency, organization, employer or company. |
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