Diplomacy 4.0: The Rise of Artificial Intelligence as a Subject of Diplomatic Negotiations11/20/2023 As the Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution continues, governments and international organizations are rapidly expanding diplomatic negotiations on the subject. In this blog post, I continue analyzing Artificial Intelligence in diplomacy, now focusing on AI as a subject of Diplomacy. As in my previous post, Diplomacy 4.0: How Artificial Intelligence in Changing Diplomacy? diplomacy-40-how-artificial-intelligence-is-changing-diplomacy.html, I will be using DiploFoundation´s perspective on how AI influences diplomacy (DiploFoundation, 2019, p. 14-15), which divides them into three: a) AI as a diplomatic tool; b) AI as a topic of diplomacy, and c) the consequences of AI on the international system. First, let's say that it is tough to follow up on the discussion on AI, as most international organizations and other multilateral mechanisms analyze the topic from different perspectives. However, the concerns about AI did not appear with the launching of ChatGPT a year ago. In many multilateral forums, AI has been discussed for quite some time. AI´s impact on all fronts makes it a theme for discussion in every single arena, from ethics and biases to human rights and democracy, including data protection and economic development. Kurbalija (2023, November 10) indicates that AI governance needs to be seen as different layers, starting from the hardware, including the chips used to power AI systems, followed by data, algorithms, and apps. This division is useful as it helps focus on specific aspects of each layer. Many organizations see AI as a great tool to help countries achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. In general, the development of AI has significant policy implications in four main areas: social and economic, safety and security, human rights, and ethical concerns (Digwatch, n.d., Artificial Intelligence). Some recent examples of AI as an issue for diplomacy are:
In the following section, there is a brief review of some of the most important activities related to AI as a topic of diplomacy. For an in-depth view, make sure you visit AI’s Digwatch webpage. UNESCO’s Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. In November 2021, all member states of UNESCO (193 countries) adopted the Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. It was a significant milestone regarding AI because rarely all 193 countries agreed on such a controversial topic, even with no binding guidelines. Besides, it is a very influential document as it is the only one of such documents or efforts. “What makes the Recommendation exceptionally applicable are its extensive Policy Action Areas, which allow policymakers to translate the core values and principles into action with respect to data governance, environment and ecosystems, gender, education and research, and health and social wellbeing, among many other spheres” (UNESCO, n.d.). UN Secretary-General efforts on AI. The UN and its organs have been working on several fronts to promote greater international collaboration in digital technology. Besides UNESCO, the Secretary-General has been promoting several actions in preparation for the Summit of the Future in September 2024. Here are some of the highlights of the different efforts:
The UN Secretary-General Envoy on Technology. After a year after establishing the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology, in June 2022, António Guterres named Amandeep Singh Gill the first UN Secretary-General Envoy on Technology. This is significant because the office “coordinates the implementation of the Secretary-General’s Roadmap on Digital Cooperation and will advance work towards the Global Digital Compact” (Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology, n.d.) The UN High-Level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence In October 2023, “UN Secretary-General António Guterres unveiled a new advisory body dedicated to developing consensus around the risks posed by artificial intelligence and how international cooperation can help meet those challenges” (Henshall, 2023). The High-Level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence has 38 members and met for the first time in November 2023. “The Body will offer diverse perspectives and options on how AI can be governed for the common good, aligning internationally interoperable governance with human rights and the Sustainable Development Goals.” (Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology, n.d.) The Council of Europe’s Convention on AI and Human Rights. This is an important negotiation, as it could be the first international treaty on the subject. The Council of Europe (CoE) established the Committee on Artificial Intelligence in 2021 with the goal of “elaborating a legal instrument on the development, design, and application of artificial intelligence (AI) systems based on the CoE’s standards on human rights, democracy and the rule of law, and conducive to innovation” (Digwatch, n.d., Convention on AI and human rights). European Union Artificial Intelligence Act. The European Commission proposed the Artificial Intelligence Act as part of the European Union's digital strategy, which already includes the General Data Protection Regulation (DGPR) (2018) and the Digital Market Act(2022). “Once approved, these [AI regulations] will be the world’s first rules on AI” (European Parliament, 2023a). The EU standpoint is that “AI systems that can be used in different applications are analysed and classified according to the risk they pose to users. The different risk levels will mean more or less regulation” (EuropeanParliament, 2023a). In June 2023, the “European Parliament adopted its negotiating position on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act … ahead of talks with EU member states on the final shape of the law” (European Parliament, 2023b). The negotiations between member states have advanced. However, recently, there were some disagreements that might delay the approval, which was expected as early as December. AI governance is at the core of diplomatic negotiations. Because AI´s impact on the world is transformational, all diplomatic endeavors center on its governance/regulations. “When debates on AI governance first emerged, one overarching question was whether AI-related challenges (in areas such as safety, privacy, and ethics) call for new legal and regulatory frameworks, or whether existing ones could be adapted to also cover AI. Applying and adapting existing regulation was seen by many as the most suitable approach. But, as AI innovation accelerated and applications became more and more pervasive, AI-specific governance and regulatory initiatives started emerging at national, regional, and international levels” (Digwatch, n.d., Artificial Intelligence). As mentioned above, the UN Secretary-General has been on the lead in the possible establishment of a new intergovernmental body that oversees AI. The brand-new Advisory Body has the purpose of discussing possible alternatives. At the national level, many countries already issued some guidelines or regulations about AI. To learn more about each country´s effort, check out the Government AI Readiness Index 2022 or the IBM Global AI Adoption Index 2022. One of the main recommendations of the Future of International Cooperation Report 2023 is the creation of an Artificial Intelligence international agency that “would serve to:
Several authors, including Manor (2023) and Kurbalija (2023, November 8), indicate that most of the attention on AI risks is focused on long-term issues such as existential threats to humanity. However, more immediate consequences of machine learning systems need to be confronted, such as biases, accessibility, and others. Governments, international organizations, companies, and civil society should comprehensively address short-, medium-, and long-term AI risks to tackle them better (Kurbalija, 2023, November 8). The calls to create an AI international body are growing. The most often cited examples are the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, after explaining the difficulties of setting up a new international organization, Roberts suggests that the “discussion should move away from what an idealised institution could look like, towards how existing initiatives can realistically be built upon to bring about positive change” (2023). Furthermore, he proposes a decentralized approach, similar to the Paris Accord and welcomes the creation of the UN Advisory Body on AI that “provides a valuable outlet for progressing discussions on strengthening international coordination; for instance, through mapping which institutions are currently fulfilling international AI governance functions and providing recommendations for how gaps can be filled and duplication lessened” (Roberts, 2023). The recently held AI Safety Summit resulted in “a joint commitment by twenty-eight governments and leading AI companies subjecting advanced AI models to a battery of safety tests before release and a major push to support regular, scientist-led assessments of AI capabilities and safety risks” (Cuellar, 2023). In the next eleven months, until the Summit of Future, there will be extensive discussion on multiple venues regarding AI governance. The fact that major countries agreed to the Bletchley Declaration gives some hope to find a way to reach an agreement on the topic. The obstacles are significant, and the differences are pronounced. The geopolitical competition between China and the US and the existing worldwide turmoil are challenges facing negotiators. The consequences of AI on the international system, especially on geopolitics, could be the defining element of reaching an agreement or not. The next blog post will discuss the third perspective on how to study AI´s influence on diplomacy. Note: Many more organizations and topics are being discussed on AI at the international level, such as Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), so only a few topics were covered in this blog post. References Cuellar, M.F. (2023, November 9). The UK AI Safety Summit Opened a New Chapter in AI Diplomacy. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Digwatch. (n.d.). Artificial Intelligence. Digwatch. Digwatch. (n.d.). Convention on AI and human rights (CoE process). Digwatch. DiploFoundation. (2019). Mapping the challenges and opportunities of artificial intelligence for the conduct of diplomacy. DiploFoundation and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. European Parliament. (2023a, June 14). EU AI Act: first regulation on artificial intelligence. EuropeanParliament News. European Parliament. (2023b, June 14). MEPs ready to negotiate first-ever rules for safe and transparent AI. European Parliament News. Henshall, W. (2023, Oct 23). What the U.N.’s AI Advising Group Will Do. Time. Kurbalija, J. (2023, November 8). How can we deal with AI risks? DiploFoundation Blog. Kurbalija, J. (2023, November 10). Layers of AI governance [Byte-sized Insights] #5. DiploFoundation. [Video]. Manor, I. (2023, June 6). Shock and Awe: How AI is Sidestepping Regulation. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology. (n.d.). Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology webpage. Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology. (n.d.). High-Level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence. Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology webpage. Ponzio, R., Nudhara Yusuf, N., Mallinson, F. & Shahrukh, M. (2023). Future of International Cooperation Report 2023. The Stimson Center, Doha Forum, and Global Institute for Strategic Research. Roberts, H. (2023, August 11). Opinion – A New International AI Body Is No Panacea. E-International Relations. UNESCO. (n.d). Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. UNESCO webpage. Are you interested in AI and diplomacy? Check out my blog post about Resources on Diplomacy and Artificial Intelligence diplomacy-40-resources-on-diplomacy-and-artificial-intelligence.html DISCLAIMER: All views expressed on this blog are those of the author and do not represent the opinions of any other authority, agency, organization, employer or company.
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Here is an updated version of Artificial Intelligence and Diplomacy resources, including AI tools, webpages, videos, studies, and articles. In the end, there is some information about using AI for teaching and learning. Please share new ones in the comment section! You can also read my blog posts about the subject here:
AI tools and application/experiments/usage Diplo AI Writer @ DiploFoundation is a DiploFoundation artificial intelligence writer who publishes blog posts about the subject, including the DiploFoundation AI Diary. HumAInism by DiploFoundation has some AI tools related to diplomacy and arts. Can ChatGPT Explain Geopolitics? is an exercise to compare two essays and test if you can identify the one written by AI. It is published by Foreign Policy magazine. Interactive webpage about the cost of AI in different languages (Tokenization fairness). Webpages of research centers and institutions Artificial Intelligence and Diplomacy by DiploFoundation. Artificial Intelligence by Digwatch (Geneva Internet Platform) AI Now Institute. Center for AI and Digital Policy Center for the Advancement of Trustworthy AI Deloitte AI Institute for Government Global Partnership for AI. MILA, Quebec Artificial Intelligence Institute. OECD AI Observatory. Partnership on AI Tech Policy Press. UN-related sites: Road Map for Digital Cooperation and its updated road map) Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Technology webpage. Global Digital Compact (May 2023, High-Level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence Summit of the Future UNESCO´s Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. Videos Artificial Intelligence and Diplomacy Webinar. UNITAR and UOC. (2023, February 15). AI and Diplomacy: Challenges and opportunities. UNITAR (2023, May 10) Will AI take over diplomatic reporting? WebDebate #56. DiploFoundation (2023, February 7). What role can AI play in diplomatic negotiation? WebDebate #57. DiploFoundation (2023, March 7). How to Train Diplomats to Deal with AI and Data? WebDebate #58. DiploFoundation (2023, April 4). What Can We Learn About AI Ethics and Governance from Non-Western Thought? WebDebate #59. DiploFoundation (2023, May 2). AI for Peacemaking: new tools and opportunities for mediators. WebDebate #30. DiploFoundation (2019, June 19). AI on the international agenda - where do we go from here? WebDebate #26. DiploFoundation (2018, December 4). Studies and articles Bjola, C. (2019, October 19). Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. Real Institute Elcano. Bjola, C. (2020). Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. EDA Working Paper. Emirates Diplomatic Academy. Bjola, C. & Manor, I. (2023, April 25). ChatGPT: The end of diplomacy as we know it. Global Policy. Cocking, S. (2016, September 19). Using algorithms to achieve digital diplomacy. A conversation with Elad Ratson, Director of R&D at Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Irish Tech News. Deloitte AI Institute for Government & Google Cloud. (2022). Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Modernize American Statecraft. Dickow, M. and Jacob, D. (2018). The Global Debate on the Future of Artificial Intelligence. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik [SWV] Comment No. 23, p. 7. Digwatch. (2019, February 5). Artificial intelligence and diplomacy: A new tool for diplomacy? EVENT REPORT. Digwatch. Geneva Internet Platform. Digwatch. (2023, July 17). UN Security Council convenes to discuss AI risks. Digwatch. Geneva Internet Platform. DiploFoundation. (2019). Mapping the challenges and opportunities of artificial intelligence for the conduct of diplomacy. DiploFoundation and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. DiploFoundation. (2023, May 3). First full AI-reporting from the UN meeting. DiploFoundation blog. DiploFoundation. (2023, May 3). AI-based report of United Nations Security Council debate marks start of a new era in multilateral diplomacy. DiploFoundation blog. Elia Valori, G. (2023, July 8). Artificial Intelligence and the New World Order (1). Modern Diplomacy. Elia Valori, G. (2023, July 30). AI and the new world order: Economy and war (2). Modern Diplomacy. European Migration Network. (2022). The use of digitalisation and artificial intelligence in migration management: Joint EMN-OECD Inform. Galeotti, M. (2023, January 7). The age of AI diplomacy. The Spectator. Government AI Readiness Index 2022. Henshall, W. (2023, Oct 23). What the U.N.’s AI Advising Group Will Do. Time. IBM Global AI Adoption Index 2022. Jacobs. S (2023, September 7). Time 100 Most Influential People on AI. Time. Keohan, C. & Kralev, N. (2022, August 7). Want to Be a Diplomat? You Must Make it Past and A.I.’ Gateway’. Diplomatic Diary blog. Washington International Diplomatic Academy. Kurbalija, J. (2023, May 1). Why might AI cause more ´lost in translation´ worldwide? DiploFoundation Blog. Kurbajila, J. (2023, June 12). The case for bottom-up AI. Al Jazeera. Kurbalija, J. (2023, August 1). What can Socrates teach us about AI and prompting? DiploFoundation Blog. Kurbalija, J. (2023, November 8). How can we deal with AI risks? DiploFoundation Blog. Laferrière, H. & McPherson, A. (2019, April 24). Augmented Decision-Making @ IRCC. Presentation to the Symposium on Algorithmic Government. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Lederer, E. (2023, July 3). UN Council to hold first meeting on potential threats of artificial intelligence to global peace. AP News. Manor, I. (2023, February 21). The AI Moves In: ChatGPT’s Impact on Digital Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, March 30). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, April 4). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy - Part 2. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, April 18). ChatGPT and the Future of Diplomacy - Part 3. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, June 15). AI’s Impact on Public Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, June 27). The Many Races that will shape AI. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, July 4). Real Fakes and the Future of Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Manor, I. (2023, August 15). Towards the Strategic Use of AI in Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy blog. O´Neil, L (2023, August 12). The Truth in Tech: These Women Tried to Warn Us about AI. Rolling Stone. Petrov, A., La Malfa, E., Torr, P. H.S., & Bibi, A. (2023, May 17). Language Model Tokenizers Introduce Unfairness Between Languages. ArXiv:2350.1542. Ponzio, R., Nudhara Yusuf, N., Mallinson, F. & Shahrukh, M. (2023). Future of International Cooperation Report 2023. The Stimson Center, Doha Forum, and Global Institute for Strategic Research. Scott, B., Heumann, S., & Lorenz, P. (2018). Artificial Intelligence and Foreign Policy. Stiftung Neue Veranwortung. Stanzel, V. & Voelsen, D. (2022). Diplomacy and Artificial Intelligence Reflections on Practical Assistance for Diplomatic Negotiations. SWP Research Paper. Strachan, G. & Manor, I. (2023, July 14). ‘I can be a bastard too’- ChatGPT’s Real Contribution to Diplomacy. Exploring Digital Diplomacy Blog. Tarar, Z. (2023, February 23). Analysis - Could AI change the business of diplomacy? The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Tarar, Z. (2023, February 27). Analysis - Which AI tools should diplomats use today? The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Tarar, Z. (2023, August 28). Analysis - Harnessing AI for diplomacy: Five tools to make your work easier. The Diplomatic Pouch at Medium. Teleanu, S (2023, August 21). A journey of discovery: Using simulation and AI to teach and learn about digital governance. DiploFoundation Blog. Williams, A., Micali, M. & Gebru, T. (2022, October 23). The Exploited Labor Behind Artificial Intelligence. NOEMA. Williams, R. & Otto, L. (2022). Artificial Intelligence as a Tool of Public Diplomacy: Communication between the United States and Iran. The Thinker 90(1) p. 28-40. Information about using AI for teaching and learning. Mollick, E. (2022, December 13). How to…use AI to teach some of the hardest skills. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, January 24). The practical guide to using AI to do stuff. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, March 17). Using AI to make teaching easier & more impactful. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. (2023, July 15). How to Use AI to Do Stuff: An Opinionated Guide. One Useful Thing blog. Mollick, E. Video series on Practical AI for Teachers and Students. YouTube. DISCLAIMER: All views expressed on this blog are that of the author and do not represent the opinions of any other authority, agency, organization, employer or company. |
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